Description: Delinquency rates are closely related to the economic conditions and can be analyzed using measures of economic growth and stability. In an attempt to predict the delinquency rate for the health care equipment financial industry, we investigated the relationship between delinquency rate and key macroeconomic variables for the period from 1998 to 2008. The study reveals that the tightening credit standards and unemployment rate are the key macroeconomic indicators influencing the delinquency rate. The analysis further helps in arriving at a trigger to monitor the delinquency rate based on the macroeconomic indicators, thus enabling proactive portfolio management. Presented at 2010 Enterprise Risk Management Symposium, Society of Actuaries, April 12-15, 2010.

Description: The author uses a generalized asset risk model to explore C1 risk, drawing heavily from investment theory and pension fund management, applying these to an insurance general account. This article has two parts the first part, contained in this issue of Risk and Reward, describes the basic C1 model itself. The second part, which will be published in the next issue of Risks and Rewards, discusses various implications of the basic C1 model, especially related to managing the company’s investment portfolio.